Don’t Underestimate U.S. Imperialism

From the mainstream media to YouTubers and the revolutionary left, there is growing unanimity that the U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran will end in defeat. As communists, we strive for such an outcome and firmly stand in defense of Iran against the ongoing imperialist attack. However, it is precisely because we have a militant stance in this conflict that we must warn against the danger of complacency.

All the way back to October 2023, we have been told by countless analysts that Israel has no off-ramp, that it will run out of ammunition, that it will collapse from within. But none of this has happened. Israel and the U.S. have dictated the tempo of events. They have launched increasingly aggressive offensives and paused them when convenient. The Axis of Resistance has fought back, but it has constantly been on the back foot, leading to multiple setbacks and a weakening position.

While the latest round of clashes is taking place at a higher level of intensity, nothing so far shows a fundamental change in the strategic orientation of the respective parties. Why should we have any confidence that this time the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will fight on until it inflicts a major strategic defeat on the U.S. and Israel?

We cannot once again rely on the Axis of Resistance or on the promise of future political discontent in the West. The left and anti-imperialist forces must put their own strategy forward, one that opposes the current onslaught but also provides a real path to throwing the U.S. out of West Asia.

A New Paradigm

The first thing to understand is that the world we live in today is not that of the early 2000s. In 2003 Bush and Blair went to great lengths to diplomatically justify their attack against Iraq. Today, Trump and Netanyahu couldn’t care less. It is not so much the personalities of the leaders that have changed. Rather, it is the political era that is now fundamentally different.

After decades of relative stability, the world is now entering a dangerous downward spiral in which the U.S. is acting with ever-growing aggression and irrationality to maintain its hegemony. On a regional scale, this is the course Israel has followed since October 7, launching increasingly rash attacks on countries throughout the region.

To get a sense of what this new era will look like, we must look further back than the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and even the bloody conflicts of the Cold War, to World War II, when the entire world was plunged into an infernal cycle of mass slaughter and destruction. This is what happens when imperialist powers are pushed into a corner. This is the prospect the future holds.

But this does not mean that we are on a straight line to World War III or that the U.S. will be ready to wage total war against Iran. There will be resistance and setbacks on this road. Rather, it means we are in a world where the general trend is toward a rising level of violence and economic chaos.

But despite all the speeches about the end of the rules-based order, many commentators still look at the war with Iran through an old lens. They underestimate the degree to which the U.S. rulers will be ready to accept economic chaos and the suffering of their own people. What would have been unacceptable a few years ago is now viewed as the necessary price to pay to keep the world under the American boot. With this new paradigm, we cannot assess the outcome of a war simply through electoral results, symbolic victories and short-term economic disruption. We must look at the balance of forces among the parties, their internal coherence and their resolve to fight.

U.S.-Israeli War Aims

Every commentator under the sun has complained that Trump has no clear objective and is constantly changing his narrative. His administration is truly incompetent. However, it is wrong to think that the U.S. and Israel do not have a clear strategic objective in this war. Long before October 7, Israel, aided by the U.S., has been clear that it seeks to roll back Iranian power in the region and eliminate it as a counterweight. The current war is simply a continuation of this campaign.

Whether in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon or now Iran, the Israelis have pursued their objective by assassinating their enemies, degrading their military capacities and grinding the entire social fabric of Israel’s rivals into the ground. Unlike the Iraq and Afghan wars, for which the U.S. devoted significant resources toward establishing puppet regimes, there is no such concern in the current conflict.

Of course, Trump and Netanyahu would love to bring down the Iranian Islamic Republic and score a clear political win. But ultimately this is secondary to their objective of degrading Iran’s ability to project regional power.

The Military Situation

More than two weeks into the conflict, the Iranian regime has not collapsed. It continues to have the ability to significantly disrupt the economy of the Gulf and, with the help of Hezbollah, target Israel. The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and the targeting of oil and gas infrastructure have the potential to cause major disruptions to the world economy. Iran has been able to target certain American (and presumably Israeli) military installations, but it cannot touch the U.S. military-industrial complex or thwart its ability to bomb Iran. So far, American and Israeli forces appear to have suffered minimal casualties.

While the Israeli and American aerial bombing campaign has not destroyed Iran’s ability to strike (nor is it likely to), it has indisputably caused major economic and military damage. However, short of a full-scale ground invasion, an unlikely prospect, there is no way to fully defeat the IRGC militarily. The U.S., Israel and their Gulf allies have been able to intercept a significant proportion of the drones and missiles launched from Iran. But this ability will diminish over time as the supply of interceptor missiles decreases.

Based on this picture, it appears that neither side can realistically eliminate the military threat posed by the other. The outcome of the conflict is thus highly dependent on each side's ability and will to sustain the war.

If Iran continues to strike Israel and the Gulf when air defense missiles are depleted, disrupt oil flows to the point where they provoke a major economic crisis or inflict significant military casualties, it could potentially deal a real strategic blow that would impede future aggression.

However, if, on the contrary, it once again accepts a settlement when convenient for the U.S., we will likely see only a pause until the next round of attacks. Moreover, in such a scenario, the damage Iran will have inflicted will surely pale in comparison to the devastating long-term impact of the bombing campaign on Iranian society. As such, a lot hinges on the IRGC’s ability and determination to pursue and escalate the conflict.

Will the IRGC Stay the Course?

In his first public declaration, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba ‌Khamenei, assured everyone that “we won’t forgo avenging the blood of your martyrs.” The puppet president, Masoud Pezeshkian, in what looked like a coordinated declaration, stated:

“The only way to end this war—ignited by the Zionist regime and U.S.—is recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm international guarantees against future aggression.”

Because of these declarations as well as statements by the IRGC, many are convinced that Iran will pursue the struggle regardless of U.S. and Israeli desires to eventually settle the conflict. The argument is that given the intensity of the current attack and direct U.S. participation, Iran cannot accept stopping the conflict short of inflicting a stinging defeat on its enemies. To assess how likely the IRGC is to maintain this posture, we must look at some of the factors weighing on its determination.

First there is Iran’s international position. Within the Gulf itself, Iran is trying to balance a vigorous defense with its reluctance to open a total war with its neighbors. If it sustains and expands its operations, it could find itself totally isolated in the region. This possibility is somewhat countered by Iran’s two major partners, Russia and China. But far from being fully behind Iran’s pursuit of an extended campaign, both will likely seek an early resolution. Russian and Chinese billionaires have deep ties to the Gulf countries, much of China’s oil comes through the Strait of Hormuz, and both countries have signaled that they want a return to stability.

Of greater consequence is the internal front. While there is undoubtedly a strong sentiment of national unity in the current war, the underlying reality of Iranian society is one of sharp polarization, with growing layers of the country opposing the regime. The protests in January and the brutal repression that followed are indicative of a deep rupture.

Popular struggle against the Islamic Republic is unlikely at present, but if the war drags on and if the U.S. and Israel indicate they want out, fissures may once again occur. The IRGC knows that it does not have the same kind of popular support as it did during the Iran-Iraq war, and this no doubt will weigh on its determination to pursue the conflict.

Ultimately, the matter will be settled through bureaucratic struggles in the IRGC. The selection of Mojtaba ‌Khamenei as new Supreme Leader points to the hardliners remaining in charge. This should not be seen as a guarantee of future intransigence. Experience shows that there are strong pressures within the regime itself toward conciliation. Despite countless provocations and betrayals by the West and promises by the hardliners to never be fooled again, the course of confrontation has always been followed by appeasement. While this does not guarantee that the same course will be followed once more, it should at the very least give pause to those who proclaim with certainty that Iran will fight until victory.

How to Throw the U.S. Out of the Middle East

Another common view is that that the U.S. may be expelled from the Middle East because of this conflict. How is this expected to happen? The basic outline can be seen in the declaration by Mojtaba ‌Khamenei:

“I advise the leaders of regional countries to shut down those [U.S.] bases as soon as possible, for they must surely have realized by now that the U.S.’s claims of ensuring security and peace have been nothing but lies. Shutting down U.S. bases in the region will enable those governments to strengthen their ties with their own people, who are generally dissatisfied with the humiliating behavior associated with those bases.”

No doubt there is discontent in the Gulf countries at having been dragged into this war and seeing their infrastructure becoming targets. But to think that this would be enough for them to break their military ties with the U.S. is a total fantasy. U.S. military power is the very foundation on which the Gulf monarchies have maintained themselves as dystopian islands of feudal reaction.

The only way to throw the U.S. out of the Gulf is to throw the kings, sheikhs, emirs and princes out with them. This would have to be done through popular mobilization, which would have to extend to the vast layers of laboring immigrants who make these countries run. As the declaration above shows, this is not at all the perspective of the Iranian regime. It seeks to appeal to the very rulers dependent on and heavily invested in the U.S. to do the right thing and close the bases.

Even if Iran somehow exerted enough pressure for American bases to be closed, what then? Would the fanatic Sunni regimes in the Gulf accept living in harmony with a Shia republic armed with long-range ballistic missiles and the potential to acquire nuclear weapons? Never. The truth is that despite their protests, the Sunni monarchies are just as invested as Israel in breaking the Islamic Republic and removing it as a rival.

This points to the most important obstacle to throwing the U.S. out of the Middle East: the countless sectarian and national divisions that split the region. These tensions, consciously fostered by the imperialists, mean that there is always a group willing to make a pact with the devil and lean on an outside power to further its own narrow interests. As long as there isn’t a way to cut through these divisions and unite the peoples of West Asia in a common struggle against the foreign oppressors, there will be no prospect of expelling imperialism from the region, which will continue to be dragged downward in an infernal cycle of wars.

An Anti-Imperialist Strategy

What does an anti-imperialist strategy look like in the current war? It must start with a clear stance in defense of Iran. Unity against imperialism is the precondition for any progressive outcome.

This does not imply support for the rulers of the Islamic Republic. Starting from the standpoint of defending the country, it is necessary to show how the IRGC’s strategy and policies undermine this fight.

• The religious-dictatorial character of the regime, not least its imposition of the veil and other anti-woman policies, alienates large layers of the population.

• The oppression of national minorities creates potential recruits for the imperialists and Zionists—better to give them self-determination and build a strong alliance on a fraternal basis.

• The corrupt elite undermines economic development and the ability of Iran to resist.

We must show that to repel imperialist aggression and develop the country, Iran needs a different regime—one based on the power of the working class and the oppressed masses.

Given the deep sectarian divisions in Iran and in the broader region, religion cannot be the basis for unity. Neither can bureaucratically imposed secularism. Only by guaranteeing the religious and national rights of every minority can we start to overcome the deep animosity that exists. Ultimately, it is in a common struggle against foreign aggression that we will be able to bind all these various groups together.

In the broader Muslim world and Global South, we must not have any faith that the current leaders will be consistent in their opposition to the U.S. Most have a direct interest in maintaining the status quo. At every step they dither and conciliate. We must appeal to the masses of the Global South to oppose the subservient policies of their governments.

In Israel as well as the U.S. and other imperialist countries, the bastions of world reaction, we must fight to polarize society along class lines. No faith whatsoever can be placed in the “more democratic” wings of the ruling class. To win the working class of the “collective West,” we must show it how the disastrous foreign policy of the elites only creates chaos and misery at home. The working class does not in any way have an interest in being dragged down by its rulers in a spiral of global destruction.

If we are clear that this is where humanity is heading, it should also be clear that half-measures and pious wishes that the empire will crumble from within will not do. We have no time to lose in regrouping the most consistent and determined elements of the anti-imperialist movement around a clear conception and strategy.