South Asian Powder Keg

South Asia is home to a quarter of humanity, immense poverty and explosive contradictions that threaten to turn into ethnic and religious carnage even under normal circumstances. Now, as U.S. imperialism turns the screws, the instability and shocks underway will turn South Asia into a veritable powder keg. Where more than a billion live from hand to mouth, the masses in South Asia literally cannot afford more assaults on their livelihoods. To avoid being crushed, they will have little choice but to rise up in revolt—as seen in the recent uprising in Bangladesh that led to the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, or the Aragalaya in Sri Lanka that sent the Rajapaksa dynasty fleeing.

As far as we are concerned, the question is not if the South Asian powder keg will detonate, but when, how, and to whose detriment: will it be the corrupt ruling classes who emerge weaker, or the masses? In the face of such a prognosis, the task of revolutionaries is to provide a perspective that will prepare the working class in the subcontinent to emerge as an independent political factor that can change the balance of forces in its own favor. Key to such an aim is to unite the masses—a basic yet momentous task given the national, religious, ethnic and caste-based antagonisms that characterize South Asia. These deepgoing divisions can only be overcome through an opposition to U.S. imperialism and the ruling classes that are now pivoting toward the West either willingly, such as in India, or under pressure from financial strangulation, like Sri Lanka.

“MAGA + MIGA” = MEGA Disaster in Modi’s India

Modi was one of the first world leaders to visit the Trump White House. During a press briefing, he announced that “when America and India work together, this MAGA [Make America Great Again] plus MIGA [Make India Great Again] becomes a mega partnership for prosperity.” In other words, MAGA plus MIGA, equals MEGA! This clear shift toward the U.S. in India’s foreign policy caught many by surprise, owing to India’s longstanding approach of “non-” or “multi-” alignment.

S. Jaishankar, External Affairs Minister, articulates the logic behind the MAGA/MIGA view more clearly: “We see a president and an administration moving toward multipolarity, and that is something which suits India.” But this raises more questions than it answers. Trump has threatened 26 percent tariffs on “tariff king” India, which will likely devastate sections of India’s economy. In response, instead of mounting a resistance, India has signaled its willingness to cut tariffs on several goods and the Modi government is rushing to reach a bilateral trade agreement. Already, Apple has announced that it will seek to shift all U.S. iPhone production from China to India by 2026. And during his recent visit to India, J.D. Vance called for closer ties between India and the U.S., noting that “if we fail to work together successfully, the 21st century could be a very dark time for all of humanity.”

What is behind this love affair between Modi and Trump? Why is Modi capitulating so easily to Trump? To make sense of the developing situation, we need to understand the aims and interests of the Indian ruling class.

A Convergence of Interests

The Indian big bourgeoisie today is composed of several billionaires with vested interests in strategic sectors of the national and international economy. They are firmly tied to the West and imperialist finance capital—whether it’s the ArcelorMittal steel magnate who enjoyed “non-dom” tax status in Britain for decades, or Ambani buying strategic ports in Israel and striking a deal with Musk’s Starlink. Today’s Indian bourgeoisie firmly looks to the West. Its model to develop the country is to deepen its integration with finance capital. It is also ardently anti-China.

When it comes to the tariffs, the billionaires are not so worried. They see an opportunity to access the U.S. consumer market at the expense of their Asian competitors. As the anti-China drive escalates and countries like Vietnam and Cambodia reel from heavy tariffs, capital will look for other destinations, devastating these export-based economies. India seeks to take advantage of this dynamic by lowering its tariffs and further liberalizing its economy so that it can finally become the manufacturing alternative to China that it has long sought to become. In this vein, it is trying to strike trade deals not just with the U.S., but also the EU and Britain.

The global order is in the process of being restructured and things are in flux. But what is certain is that the U.S. is forcing the majority of the world into line behind its own aims. It is difficult to predict Trump’s next move, but based on the interests of the Indian big bourgeoisie and the reports on the India-U.S. trade negotiations, we can say that the scenario outlined above is the likely direction of travel. This would bring India’s economic orientation in line with its anti-China strategy, which is seen, for example, in its membership in the Quad military grouping.

Disaster for the Masses

Before such a prognosis is borne out, economic catastrophe for the masses is certain. First, all signs point to an international economic crisis. The tariff turmoil has pushed stock and bond markets into a sell-off and heightened fears of looming crisis. India’s “middle class” is deep in debt and the stock bubble is on the verge of bursting. This will evaporate the small savings of the urban petty bourgeoisie, which has taken to investing in stocks instead of gold as their parents and grandparents did.

The situation is much grimmer for the poor masses. The images of hundreds of thousands walking hundreds of miles back to the countryside during Covid, many dying along the way, are still fresh in their minds. An economic crisis today promises to be devastating, mostly due to the scale of the speculative bubble, but also due to the objective conditions in India, where there is nearly 45 percent unemployment among those between 20 and 24. During a crisis, capital flight occurs en masse as it seeks safety back in the imperialist heartlands. This will destroy growth and exacerbate unemployment.

Second, the trade deal between India and the U.S. will further open up key sectors of the Indian economy, something that has been fiercely resisted from most corners of society. This was expressed in the mass farmers’ protests against the Modi government’s move to liberalize agriculture by removing the minimum support price—the only thing preventing huge swaths of the peasantry from being crushed under the pressures of the world market. Any move to dispense with the status quo in agriculture in a direction that favors the capitalists will absolutely destroy the small and medium farmers. When 46 percent of the workforce still works in agriculture, such a move will send unemployment soaring and drive more people into already overcrowded cities in search of a living. While we don’t know what a future trade deal will entail, Trump has his eyes set on Indian agriculture.

Could Modi Go More Bonapartist?

Yes. The trends outlined above point to one conclusion: an increasing likelihood of social discontent and explosions. To control this, the Modi regime will turn toward more bonapartism in order to maintain its grip on power. It will double down on the communal card as a means of further dividing the masses along religious, ethnic or national lines to undercut the prospect of a united struggle. As the crisis unfolds, the increased drive toward state-engineered communal conflict will go hand in hand with increased repression. The anti-Muslim poison coming from the establishment following the attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir (see page 36), illustrates this most graphically.

The ramming through of the Waqf (Amendment) Bill increases the Indian state’s ability to encroach upon the religious property rights of Muslims. There has been huge opposition to the bill among the Muslim population as well as liberal forces, but the state has preemptively cracked down and is suppressing this opposition from turning into a movement by threatening one-million-rupee fines for any disturbance of the peace. Despite this, riots broke out in West Bengal, leading to the death of several involved.

As the prospects for economic disaster heighten and India and Pakistan beat war drums, the working masses face calamity. Meanwhile, the liberal anti-Modi brigade has demonstrated its incompetence through eleven years of failure. Modi returned to power for a third consecutive term, albeit in a coalition government. While this puts limits on his power, it is also the condition for him to crack down even more in order to keep his allies in line and dissent in check. To combat a more bonapartist and pro-U.S. Modi, what is needed is a political alternative that can channel the discontent into a progressive struggle. So, what are the alternatives to Modi and what are their prospects?

A Paralyzed Congress

Ironically, given India’s turn to the U.S., it is those who have been driving the economic liberalization agenda that are now the champions of retaliation and resistance. They bemoan the end of the old days of non-alignment, when India’s foreign policy was “bold and independent.” Congress old-timer and former diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service, Mani Shankar, recently complained:

Rahul Gandhi, the figurehead of the Congress dynasty and the leader of the parliamentary opposition, has made a number of declarations criticizing the Modi government’s conciliation of Trump. This puts Gandhi in an awkward position. It is much more difficult to attack Modi for capitulating to the U.S. when Gandhi and Congress have spent the last decade begging the “liberal democratic” West to help defend Indian democracy! Now, confronted with a bonapartist Trump in the White House, Gandhi is trying to figure out how best to navigate Congress out of this bind.

The problem with Congress is that it has a thoroughly pro-imperialist stance. It is completely bankrupt in terms of having any answers to the questions facing the country. India has seen decades of Congress rule; its abject failure to develop the country prompted broad layers of society to turn to Modi. The possibility is not ruled out that, facing devastation, the masses could bring Congress back to power to protest Modi’s strategy, or even that Congress could pivot left under pressure. But Congress has absolutely zero strategy for steering India in the new world order. Such a scenario could well be the final nail in its coffin.

The Anti-Imperialism of the Communist Parties

The mainstream Stalinist parties—Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI[M]) and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation—are calling out Modi’s embrace of U.S. imperialism. At its recently held 24th party congress on 2 April, longstanding CPI(M) leader Prakash Karat raged about Trump:

Similarly, Liberation writes that “at stake is not just India’s national pride as a sovereign country which attained independence through protracted anti-colonial resistance, but also India’s vital economic interests and strategic autonomy to pursue domestic and foreign policies needed for India’s own development” (ML Update, 11 March).

The talk of anti-imperialist struggle is certainly refreshing. Yet, these “anti-imperialists” are in an anti-Modi political bloc with the pro-imperialist Congress! Such anti-imperialism is a bunch of hot air so long as they remain hitched to Congress, as it will never go against the Indian bourgeoisie which is tied to the hip of imperialist finance capital. Through the alliance with Congress, not only can they not wage an anti-imperialist struggle, but they are undermining the struggle against Modi by subordinating it to the liberal representatives of the bourgeoisie.

The failure of the Communist parties to organize a genuine struggle against the Modi government is seen sharply in the Kashmir crisis. Following the Pahalgam attack, India has been in the throes of a national unity campaign whipped up with anti-Kashmir and anti-Pakistan bile and inevitably directed against Indian Muslims. In response, the CPI(M) has called to “curb divisive moves” while Liberation denounced “rising communal hatred and bigotry.” However, these parties refuse to stand for the self-determination of Kashmir! For Indian Communists to refuse to fight for Kashmir’s freedom is to concede to the very Hindu chauvinism they claim to oppose. After all, it is obvious that the national oppression of Kashmir and the defense of the integrity of the Indian state are at the very heart of Modi’s anti-Muslim offensive and demagogy.

Prospects and Tasks for Revolutionaries

The strategy of relying on finance capital to usher in growth—the cornerstone of Modi’s “Gujarat Model”—cannot solve even the most basic problems of India’s gargantuan needs of development. The sheer scale of the task demands a massive expansion in the productive forces, nationalization of banks and key industries, expropriation of the parasitic billionaires and a radical democratic resolution of the agrarian problem—all of which demand a direct confrontation with the pro-imperialist ruling class.

However, there are some prospects for growth through Modi’s capitulation to Trump. A pro-U.S. strategy could eventually lead to the growth of industrial zones and a parallel growth of the proletariat. This layer—which would be a small sliver of the massive population—could see a relative rise in its living standards. Overall, this would strengthen the social weight of the working class in the country and enhance the potential for the Indian proletariat to play a role in social struggles—it has so far failed to emerge as an independent force under Modi’s rule. Whether or not this will be possible, however, depends on its political education in the coming period of turmoil.

It is safe to say that the left is not prepared and will be smacked in the face by the coming catastrophe. While the Stalinists debate endlessly about whether the Modi government is fascist or neo-fascist to best justify their alliance with Congress, many smaller left groups are largely restricted to student and campus bubbles, either replicating their own versions of obscure debates, or liquidating into whatever movement peeks its head out.

The Communist Party of India (Maoist), one of the main Naxalite parties, illegal and hunted by the state in the jungles, recently announced it is open to talks with the government. This is a sign of desperation as it loses militants through Operation Kagar, an intensified push by the state to eliminate the Maoists. This setback signals that not just the mainstream left but even the more radical forces are in a position of weakness.

To emerge from this, the Marxist parties and groups must turn to the working class! Some might say that the Stalinists already have mass organizations and trade unions. But in a country of over a billion this is a drop in the ocean! There is an urgent need to intervene into the daily struggles of the masses, not merely offer them abstract lectures on the necessity of revolution. It is also urgent to win pro-Modi workers, not merely shun them for being chauvinist. Marxists must fight to unite the working class and overcome the various divisions, not play by the liberal framework of good versus bad workers based on the thoughts inside their heads. We must explain how they can only improve their fate through a struggle against this genocidal Hindu-chauvinist regime.

The decisive point is that none of this can be achieved through an alliance with Congress, a status quo party which has itself benefited from the various divisions plaguing Indian society. Crucial is also the necessity to champion freedom for Kashmir, not kowtow to the government’s propaganda on “terrorism.” The prerequisite to waging an anti-imperialist, anti-Modi struggle is a political break with Congress and all forces that conciliate it. To achieve this, it is necessary to polarize the pro-Congress anti-imperialists by explaining to their members why an alliance with Congress undermines the struggle against U.S. imperialism. To advance this break between the subjectively anti-imperialist elements and their wretched leaderships, we put forward the following platform and urge the small forces of Trotskyism to join us in this fight to build a genuine revolutionary party based on complete political independence from all bourgeois forces.

Down with the QUAD and U.S. imperialism! No support to Congress!
Freedom for Kashmir! Down with the Waqf Bill and Operation Kagar!
For an anti-imperialist alliance of the working class and peasantry!

Pakistan: Free Imran Khan!
Down With U.S. Imperialism!

Pakistan is facing a revolt by the masses. Last year, there were huge national protests in support of former prime minister Imran Khan of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice [PTI]), who was ousted in 2022 in what was essentially a U.S.-backed coup and later thrown behind bars. The protests were violently attacked by the military, culminating in a massacre in Islamabad last November. Since then, the Bhutto and Sharif dynasties—historic rivals—have shared power in a shaky coalition government whose sole aim is to crush the support behind Imran Khan. An uneasy calm prevails but nothing has been resolved and support for Khan today is stronger than ever. The escalation with India over Kashmir is building national unity and helping the despised military and government gain support.

On the economic front, the country is a basket case of years of double-digit inflation, high interest rates and a falling currency. Decades of dependence on imperialism have left Pakistan choking on foreign debt. It has had 23 IMF bailouts since its creation in 1947 and is currently negotiating another loan, which will squeeze it further. As with all countries under the boot of the IMF, it will be the masses who bear the brunt. The only way to push back against economic devastation and the threat of war is through an anti-imperialist struggle. To understand why, we must first untangle the dynamics driving domestic politics.

The Cycle of Pakistani Politics

There’s a saying that to run Pakistan you need the support of the “Three As”: America, the Army and Allah. Since the 1950s, the country has been controlled by the military, which legitimizes its role as the guardian of Pakistan against attack by its archenemy, India. Pahalgam shows just how. The generals use the danger from India to justify slavish support to the U.S., which has historically played the two enemies against each other in order to strengthen its influence in the region. American interference in Pakistan has been almost a fact of life, starting when it was a U.S. ally in the Cold War against the Soviet Union. The dependence on the U.S. was strengthened even more during the U.S. “war on terror.” The never-ending cycle of Pakistani politics boils down to the following dynamics: when a regime supports the U.S., the population comes to revile it, rendering it ineffective as a tool of the imperialists on the one hand, and heightening Islamist insurgency on the other. The U.S. pushes for regime change, and the process repeats all over again.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan is less and less strategic to U.S. interests. As a result, the U.S. has drastically curtailed aid, forcing Pakistan to turn to the IMF and to look to China to ease the pressure. However, the continued repayment of foreign debt has meant a steep rise in the cost of necessities, squeezing working people further. It is urgent to break this cycle of Pakistani politics and chart a way forward in opposition to U.S. imperialism.

Khan and the Left: An Open Capitulation to U.S. Imperialism

A temporary break in this cycle came with the election of former-cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan. He facilitated the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 by bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table. But he dramatically fell out with the U.S. in 2022 when he refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Within weeks, a secret U.S. diplomatic cable signaled to the Pakistani army that Washington wanted rid of Khan. In due course, he was removed from office and thrown into prison on charges of corruption. The irony is that these charges were laid by some of the most corrupt politicians on this planet.

The immense support for Khan stems from the fact that he went up against the status quo of Pakistani politics and resisted the diktats of the U.S. He railed against corruption and military rule, winning the support of the masses who were sick of business as usual. Khan was sentenced to 14 years, the maximum penalty for corruption. The imprisonment of Khan at the behest of the U.S. is a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty. The demand for his freedom is therefore a basic democratic right to defend Pakistan from imperialist interference.

But many on the left in Pakistan refuse to champion Khan’s freedom. Why? They argue that he is on a spectrum with the rest of the pro-U.S. establishment. In one sense, this is true. Khan had the backing of the U.S. initially, and he does not have a history of radical anti-imperialism. But the truth is concrete: Khan was increasingly pushed into a confrontation with the U.S., and is now a direct victim of U.S. machinations in Pakistan. This is no longer a mere dispute among the domestic wings of the ruling class in which there is no side. It is an open attack by U.S. imperialism and revolutionaries must take a side and defend Imran Khan against this. Concretely, this means waging a fight for his freedom. To refuse do so is a gross capitulation to U.S. imperialism!

The left comes up with all manner of justifications for this capitulation. Ammar Ali Jan, the General Secretary of the Haqooq-e-Khalq Party (People’s Rights Party [HeK]), writes:

Of course, Imran Khan offered little and of course he played by the rules of the IMF. We can go on and on with his past crimes, but doing so amounts to denying the current reality. HeK opposes repression against the PTI, but what is key is to fight for Khan’s freedom! It is one thing to oppose repression in general—any liberal can do this; it is another to take up the fight against the military and imperialism by championing Khan’s freedom, which is how his defense is posed concretely. In failing to do this, HeK rejects the duty of providing leadership to the masses yearning to fight against the status quo. Indeed, as Jan acknowledges, Khan’s party is harnessing the anger of the people. The task for the left must be to intersect this sentiment in the population in order to make a revolutionary intervention that is able to expose Khan as fundamentally incapable of addressing their fears in any way. This is only possible by pushing forward the struggle against imperialism, which today takes the form of the pro-Khan protests. The prerequisite to doing so is to demand his freedom.

In the event that Khan is brought back to power, it will then be possible to expose the limits of his anti-imperialism. For example, placing demands on him that would force him to encroach upon imperialist interests would show the emptiness of his anti-imperialist stance and why it is an obstacle. This would undercut support for Khan, winning the masses to the banner of Marxism instead.

Free Balochistan!

A crucial way to expose Khan would be to fight for the right of self-determination for Balochistan, an oppressed nation divided among Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. The struggle of the Baloch people has taken a more and more insurgent form in opposition to increased repression by the Pakistani state, marked by military encounters, disappearances and indiscriminate killings of Baloch nationalists.

Recently, armed militants of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) hijacked a civilian train, taking hundreds hostage. Armed confrontation with the Pakistani military followed. There are conflicting reports about the results of the confrontation, with the state claiming that all 33 militants were massacred, and the BLA rejecting this as government propaganda. In a bid to undermine the reputation of the Pakistan military as defenders of Pakistan, the BLA claims it killed even more civilians than the state reported.

Such tactics on the part of the BLA alienate the Pakistani masses from the cause of the Baloch people, pitting them against the fight for their liberation. While we reject the BLA’s methods, it is nonetheless necessary to champion the struggle for Baloch liberation. Revolutionaries must use the Baloch national struggle as a lever for a united struggle against the Pakistani ruling class and military, longstanding servants of U.S. imperialism. Led on an anti-sectarian and working-class program, the Baloch struggle has the potential of channeling the resentment of the masses in a revolutionary direction. This is especially true now, as Kashmir is caught in the crosshairs of an all-out war between Pakistan and India. Pahalgam gives the Sharif-Bhutto regime a great opportunity to further suppress the Baloch people and any opposition. Revolutionaries must fight for the right of self-determination for both Balochistan and Kashmir!

Failing to do this will allow the imperialists to use the Baloch struggle as a tool to further their own narrow interests in the anti-China campaign. The U.S. wants to undermine China’s efforts to build a port on the Arabian Sea. But the CPC’s strategy of building infrastructure under the Belt and Road Initiative in an alliance with the local ruling classes plays into the imperialists’ trap. The Baloch come to see China as an enemy since the CPC is in cahoots with the Pakistani ruling class, their main oppressor. It is necessary to combat this strategy: the fight for the freedom of Balochistan is in the interest of both the Pakistani working class and China as it would undermine imperialist designs in the region. A free Balochistan would be able to negotiate trade and development with China on their own terms.

But this is the farthest thing from what Imran Khan wants. Certainly, Khan’s party criticized the military’s handling of the train hijacking, which was easy to do since it jives with the anti-military sentiment of its base. But Khan, as a representative of the Pakistani elite, is completely committed to retaining Balochistan within Pakistan, a prison house of peoples. Any redrawing of the borders of Pakistan would call into question the territorial rights of all countries in South Asia, all of which were arbitrarily carved out by British imperialism.

Today, an unstable South Asia is not something that U.S. imperialism has an interest in, as this could undermine its anti-China strategy. Calling on Khan to advocate the right of self-determination for the Baloch people—an essential task to build the unity of oppressed peoples against imperialism—would show how his commitment to the integrity of Pakistan’s borders is in fact an obstacle to freeing the masses from U.S. oppression.

Prospects and Tasks

Pakistan’s left is weak and insignificant. Parties like the Haqooq-e-Khalq mentioned above are led by Marxoid academics who as a rule shun the sentiments of the masses as a crucial factor in guiding the struggle. With respect to the Marxist left, the Revolutionary Communist International has made inroads into the country, launching the Inqalabi [Revolutionary] Communist Party. But their revolutionary activities amount to holding poetry readings on the streets of Lahore and issuing abstract calls to join the communists to fight for revolution. All the while, they refuse to call for the freedom of Imran Khan, the main cause animating the masses.

Pakistan is simmering and it’s only a matter of time for quantity to turn into quality. The left is utterly unprepared to face or deal with the basic questions animating the masses. Without a clear perspective to go forward, this situation will lead to disaster and put the ruling elites and military in a stronger position. We propose that militants in Pakistan cohere their forces around these demands to prepare the masses for the coming onslaught:

Free Imran Khan! Down with military rule! Down with U.S. imperialism! Cancel the debt!
Free Balochistan! For the right of self-determination of Kashmir and all oppressed nations!

Bangladesh: Who Will Sweep Away Yunus?

The mass uprising last year overthrew Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, putting an end to her 15-year corrupt rule. Since then, the leadership of the movement has put its faith in the interim government led by micro-finance pioneer and renowned darling of liberal NGOs, Muhammad Yunus. The international shocks unfolding today pose imminent disaster for Yunus’s project of installing liberal democracy and restoring stability in Bangladesh.

Globalization turned Bangladesh into the garment sweatshop of the world. The sector accounts for roughly 80 percent of Bangladesh’s exports, a large proportion of which head to the U.S. As Trump unleashes trade terror, this growth model is in complete crisis. Trump’s 37 percent tariff threat will completely devastate the garment sector. Already, due to the chaos of uncertainty, many companies are halting orders. This means shuttering factories, huge job losses and crashing wages, all of which will further devastate the countryside, which relies on remittances from garment workers.

The August 2024 uprising was an explosion of built-up anger amidst a declining economy, worsening wages and conditions, rising unemployment and mounting foreign debt. These problems will get worse as a result of Trump’s assault on the neocolonial world. As Bangladesh is squeezed between U.S. imperialism and the tremendous social pressure domestically, the basis for illusions in Yunus’s liberal project will shrink and he will face rising instability. Just as with the events that ousted Hasina, the central question confronting the Bangla masses remains the same: Which class will run society?

Yunus is a figure suited to the conditions of yesterday’s liberal world order. Today, trying to navigate the choppy seas, he seeks to strategically balance U.S. and China relations on the assumption that Bangladesh has a degree of independence which it absolutely does not have. On the one hand, Yunus has made concessions to Trump’s threats and he is also looking to make deals with the EU, Canada and Japan in the hope that these moves can help cushion the blow. At the same time, he recently completed a four-day trip to China with a delegation that included advisers on infrastructure and trade, prompting commentators to ask whether Bangladesh is tilting East.

Yunus finds himself in a bind. As he proves incapable of steering the ship in the storm, the masses will look for answers elsewhere. Lacking a working-class alternative, this could prompt them to turn toward the explicitly reactionary offers. Already, this is the aim of the Hindu nationalist propaganda machine in India which is harboring ousted prime minister Hasina and would like to see her and her party return to power. As a means to achieve this, Indian media has consistently played the religious minority card in order to stoke fears among Bangladesh’s Hindu minority and spread communal divisions. At the same time, rumors are circulating that the Bangladesh military is planning a coup to oust Yunus as a means of further clamping down on the student movement—Yunus’s base and source of legitimacy. These may well just be rumors for now, but such an outcome is not ruled out given the juncture Bangladesh finds itself in.

As U.S. imperialism goes on the offensive, Bangladesh offers an example of how small nations will face existential threats. From the point of view of the ruling class, the trend will be to look for strongmen who can steer the ship effectively and put an end to domestic unrest. This is something that the liberal lame ducks of yesterday are not well-suited for. Whether it takes the form of a military coup, an unlikely return of the discredited Awami League through Indian interference or the conservative religious Bangladesh Nationalist Party taking power, the scenario will be devastating for the masses.

During last year’s upheaval, the left either played lackey to Yunus, or failed to fight for a revolutionary program in the movement that could advance the struggle for the working class to take political power (see “Bangladesh: Tasks and Dangers,” Workers Hammer No. 254, Autumn 2024). The central task remains to break the hold of the Yunus liberals over the anti-Hasina movement and to fight for an anti-imperialist and non-sectarian movement based on the class interests of the working masses. To this end, we call on the Bangla left to fight for the following program to prepare for the cataclysm on the horizon:

Break with Yunus! Cancel the debt!
Defend religious minorities!
Workers to power! For the national liberation of Bangladesh!

Sri Lanka: Still on the Brink

As Sri Lanka peeks its head out from the rubble of complete economic collapse, it faces an upending of the old liberal order on which its growth was based. Having exited sovereign default status only in December 2024 and facing a 17th IMF loan, Trump’s threat of 44 percent tariffs will bury Sri Lanka back in the rubble and plunge the masses deeper into misery. The conditions for a mass upheaval, like the one that brought down the Rajapaksas in 2022, will only be exacerbated as the new world order takes shape.

In April 2022, Sri Lanka was plunged into its worst economic crisis since independence and defaulted on its foreign debt. This was the result of a growth model based on luring in foreign capital by offering high interest rates, only for it to be invested in what one analyst calls “political vanity” projects that catered to the whims of corrupt politicians. Accumulating since the 2000s, the debt burden was compounded by Sri Lanka’s acute vulnerability to global shocks: tourism and remittance payments—key sources of income—evaporated during the pandemic, sending its stockpile of dollars plummeting; and the Ukraine war undermined its food security and choked off key supply chains that weakened its export industries, the main drivers of the economy.

This combination of events resulted in a full-blown political crisis. Facing shortages in food, medicine and fuel, rolling blackouts, huge inflation and crippling debt, the masses rose up in revolt and overtook the Presidential Palace, sending the Rajapaksa clan fleeing for safety overseas. Now, the question on everyone’s mind is: how will the new left-wing government led by Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s National People’s Power (NPP) deliver the stability and change it promises? Sick of Rajapaksaism and economic mismanagement, the masses and even the middle classes and a large proportion of Tamils have placed their faith in Dissanayake and NPP, giving it a historic supermajority. But can it lift Sri Lanka, which is on its knees before the IMF? Based on everything so far, the answer is a categorical no. A new course is necessary! Prepare for the second Aragalaya!

The Noose of the IMF & the Legacy of Genocide

It is necessary to understand the problems confronting Dissanayake and his party, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (People’s Liberation Front [JVP]), which is the main force behind the NPP. Two things are key: first, the economic situation. As two analysts noted, “the 17th IMF programme is the noose that hangs around the NPP government’s neck” (cadtm.org, 22 November 2024). For an economy geared to exporting to the West, high tariffs and the IMF will make it impossible for Sri Lanka to get back on its feet. Any economic growth in these conditions will come through opening the country up to imperialist vultures and India, the regional power to the north. This road will only lead to another disaster for the masses.

Second, only in 2009 did Sri Lanka emerge from the throes of a 26-year-long civil war between the Sinhalese majority and the Tamil minority, which led to the murder of at least 70,000 Tamils at the hands of the military. The murderous divisions between Tamils and Sinhalese have not gone anywhere. Tamils are oppressed at the hands of the Sinhala-Buddhist Sri Lankan state and continue to fight for justice against the state’s genocidal war upon them. The JVP is a Sinhala-based party and it has historically been ferociously against rights for Tamils. Its bid to create the NPP was in part to rid itself of this chauvinist image. Dissanayake may be soft on the Tamil question for now—18 Tamil MPs were elected under his banner—but he is firmly steeped in this tradition.

The economy and the Tamil question are key to understanding why Dissanayake’s left-populism cannot deliver any genuine improvement for the masses of Lanka. Where he promised to challenge IMF diktats before elections, the NPP in office continues to implement the IMF program. It is set to capitulate to Trump, and is also making overtures to the Modi government in the north, all the while looking to China. Rather than options, these are just three giants squeezing Sri Lanka to various degrees.

Cooperation with India can give Sri Lanka a lifeline to resist the imperialists to some degree, but the terms of this cooperation are crucial. The Modi government is about to become Trump’s guard dog in the region and it has no interest in helping defend Sri Lanka from the economic storm. It is only using the island to advance its own security interests and those of its billionaires. Only cooperation based on an opposition to imperialist interests in the region can lead to beneficial terms for Sri Lanka.

On the one hand, Sri Lanka’s economic future is fraught with difficulties. On the other, Dissanayake, by capturing a huge supermajority, is now beholden to his majority Sinhalese base, large segments of which previously backed the genocidal Rajapaksa governments. Between these two, the Tamil minority will be squeezed; Tamil resistance against deteriorating conditions will place the national question back on the political center stage.

Prospects and Tasks

In this context, the task is to cohere a left-wing opposition to the Dissanayake government, including by trying to split the huge base of the JVP. This means two things. First, revolutionaries must put forward key planks for an anti-imperialist perspective and fight for it within the NPP and JVP. In these historic elections, a huge number of common people have been elected in the hope of fighting for an end to business as usual. It is the duty of revolutionaries to provide a way forward in opposition to Dissanayake’s capitulations and show what a genuine left-wing, anti-imperialist government would do.

Second, only united struggle of Tamil and Sinhalese workers against Sri Lanka’s subjugation to imperialism can keep the country from descending back into turmoil. Sinhalese revolutionaries in Lanka must raise the right of Tamil self-determination as a means of winning over the Tamil minority. This is the only means to undercut the drive toward ethnic and religious bloodshed. Crucially, this means exposing the Sinhala chauvinism of the Dissanayake regime, and fighting to win over the poor Sinhalese masses who voted for the NPP to the banner of Tamil self-determination, as part of a united struggle against the new rulers in Colombo who are beholden to the IMF. Similarly, Tamil militants must not shun Sinhalese workers, but win them to the cause of Tamil Eelam (homeland) as part of building a revolutionary anti-imperialist alliance on the island.

Down with IMF diktats! Cancel the debt!
NPP no answer—for a working-class opposition to Dissanayake! No bowing to Modi!
For Sinhala-Tamil unity! Forward to a Tamil Eelam!

Unity and Disunity in South Asia

Not only are the individual countries of South Asia powder kegs, but they are all part of a regional dynamic which is itself explosive. Carved out by British imperialism in an alliance with the colonial bourgeoisies and their parties at the time, the national divisions between countries are drawn in blood. Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan are archenemies and have been to war multiple times for control of Muslim-dominated Kashmir, which only threatens to break out once again. Pakistan and Bangladesh, while both Muslim-majority countries, have been rivals ever since the latter achieved its independence from the Urdu-speaking Pakistani ruling class with the military help of India.

Since the departure of the British, U.S. imperialism has used these national antagonisms in South Asia to advance its own aims in the region, whether it was against the Soviet Union then, or China today. Nationalism is used by the ruling classes to stoke hatred and suspicion among the masses of these countries in order to keep their own internal contradictions muted. India-Pakistan cricket matches have turned into clashes between fans; Muslims in India are baited for being anti-national; Bangladesh and Sri Lanka (rightly) fear Indian interference—the list goes on.

As we enter this new period, these tensions will only be exacerbated—we are already witnessing this. A divided South Asia can only weaken the masses in the face of the coming shocks; unity can come only in opposition to the depredations of U.S. imperialism, the main force wreaking havoc in the world. The only way to overcome the various divisions is through mounting an opposition to U.S. imperialism and its national lackeys. It is the duty of the dominant peoples of these countries to champion the rights of all of the oppressed groups within their borders in order to win their trust, and for the people of one country to defend their neighbor from imperialist oppression. Crucial also is the defense of China, a deformed workers state that the U.S. wants to asphyxiate as part of its plan to subjugate the whole of Asia. The toilers of South Asia must look to the powerful Chinese working class. Freed from the shackles of the conservative CPC bureaucracy, the People’s Republic can become the greatest lever to lift the entire continent from U.S.-imposed misery. Only such a perspective stands a chance of beating back the fury unleashed by U.S. imperialism.

Forward to a united anti-imperialist front of peoples in South Asia and China!