Palestine needs a real victory

For more than a year, Palestinians heroically resisted Israel’s genocidal onslaught. As the ceasefire went into effect on 19 January, Gazans poured into the streets in defiance and elation. The entire might of the Israeli armed forces could not crush their resolve, and Hamas has not been defeated. This in and of itself constitutes an undeniable success.

While the sense of triumph and relief is fully understandable, it should not stand in the way of a sober evaluation of the overall outcome of the war. Amidst the legitimate celebrations, we also find many deluded analyses presenting the war as an unmitigated disaster for Israel and a triumph for Palestine. David Hearst, editor-in-chief of Middle East Eye, writes that “after 15 months of brutality, Israel has failed on every front”. The problem with such evaluations is not only that they are wrong, exaggerating the success of the resistance and sweeping setbacks under the rug, but that they are profoundly disorienting.

It is necessary to unconditionally stand with the Palestinian resistance in its struggle against the Zionist state. That said, supporting Palestinian liberation does not mean blindly cheerleading. It is clear to everyone that the plight of the Palestinians, those in Gaza most of all, is far from over. Indeed, on 26 January President Trump threatened to “clean out” Gaza. It is thus essential to take this reprieve, however short it may be, to draw lessons and prepare for the next phase of the conflict so that it can result in a real and decisive victory over Zionism.

A sober balance sheet

Many have evaluated the outcome of the last 15 months of war by looking at Israel’s stated aim of eliminating Hamas. Clearly Israel failed on this front. However, this offers only a partial picture. To have a more complete appreciation, we must look at the overall strategic situation in the region.

Beyond the initial shock that 7 October dealt Israeli society, the violence and duration of the conflict were fuelled by a changing balance of forces in West Asia. For years, the Axis of Resistance, which includes Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas and Syria (before Assad’s fall), had been expanding its military capabilities. In the context of the relative decline of US global power, this had explosive implications. For many in Israel’s ruling circles, it was more important to reassert regional dominance than to permanently destroy Hamas.

So, while the pressure from the incoming Trump administration was important in forcing Netanyahu to commit to the ceasefire proposal, negotiated months ago, the other key factor was the sentiment among Israel’s political leadership that it had dealt decisive blows to the Axis of Resistance. To evaluate the reality of this, we must look at where the conflict leaves the main members of this alliance.

Hamas is still standing, and for the moment it appears to be benefiting from strong popular support for having led the resistance effort against Israel. It will surely continue to constitute a threat to Israeli security. But at this time its capabilities are much reduced, and it will need many years to build up the strength needed to launch an operation like 7 October. Moreover, it will no doubt be a huge challenge to govern the ruins which constitute Gaza today. It remains to be seen how the population will evolve politically in the inhumane conditions it finds itself in. Hamas will face this challenge with a core of tested soldiers, but with many of its most capable political leaders assassinated.

Hezbollah has also not been crushed but has suffered debilitating blows. Its entire top command has been murdered and much of its offensive capacity has been destroyed by Israel’s bombing and its invasion of southern Lebanon. But even more devastating are the self-inflicted political blows. Hezbollah’s roots in Lebanon’s confessional system entailed restricting its popular support to the Shiite sect, and a conservative military approach of “strategic patience” in confronting the Israelis and Americans. Moreover, its failed, bloody and costly intervention in Syria only alienated it from more layers of the Arab and Muslim world.

The result is clear: time after time Israel committed unimaginable provocations and crimes but prompted only very measured responses from Hezbollah. This obvious conciliation and political paralysis dealt a severe blow to the movement and will no doubt have consequences on its standing within Lebanon and the broader Arab world.

The Houthis come out of this phase of the conflict in a rather strong position. They more than any other party in the Muslim world dealt serious military and strategic blows to Israel. Despite the combined might of the US, Israel, Britain and other allies, the Houthis were never cowed and maintained the capacity to severely disrupt trade in the Red Sea and strike Israel directly. We can be sure that the pause in hostilities in Gaza will lead to a redoubling of imperialist efforts to crush the Houthis. However, their religious-nationalist programme (eg their infamous slogan “Curse on the Jews”) and the sectarian basis of their leadership will hamper their ability to resist.

The collapse of Syria more than any other development has dealt a severe strategic blow to the Axis of Resistance. In the long term, a more volatile Syria will be a problem for Israel. But for the moment, the crisis has allowed Israel to destroy much of Syria’s military equipment and has opened the door to even more Zionist occupation of Syrian land. The collapse of this pivotal member of the Axis of Resistance has also cut supply lines between Iran and the Levant.

Iran’s position is somewhat contradictory. On the military level, it was able to demonstrate that it had advanced capabilities, which can deal significant damage to Israel. Moreover, Netanyahu’s best attempts at dragging the US into a war with Iran have failed, and Iran’s nuclear sites are intact. However, on the political level Iran finds itself more isolated and divided; it lost a key ally in Assad and also frustrated its allies by its restraint.

As we explained in “Why can’t anyone stop Netanyahu?” (Spartacist supplement, 4 October 2024), Iran’s leadership is torn between pursuing a course of conciliation and engaging in a frontal conflict with the US. The latter option would not only come at a huge cost but would also find Iran isolated in a region which for the most part despises its clerical Shia regime.

The overall strategic reality is much more mixed than that portrayed by those claiming Israel suffered defeat on all fronts. Moreover, the historic objective of the Zionist project — to expand its borders according to biblical myth — has also progressed. Not only has Israel occupied more territory, stepped up its offensive in the West Bank and left Gaza unliveable, but it was also able to mobilise its population in a hitherto unprecedented genocidal frenzy.

Myth of Israeli collapse

It is certainly true that whatever success Israel has had, it has come at a high cost in terms of military losses, financial expenses and diplomatic clout. But it is absurd to claim that Israel is anywhere near ultimate defeat.

A persistent myth is that Israel is a brittle foe which will collapse under pressure, just like white domination in South Africa, French colonial rule in Algeria and the pro-US South Vietnamese regime. Brutal colonial repression is a common denominator in all these examples. But Israeli society is much more insulated economically and socially from the native population than were the white colonial regimes in Algeria and South Africa, which depended on the labour of native subjects. Israel is also not a simple puppet regime like that of South Vietnam, which had little base of support domestically. Rather, Israel has been able to build a nation-state with a relatively advanced economy, making it a more formidable and lasting foe than other colonial states.

This does not mean that Israel is invulnerable, but it does speak in favour of knowing what the actual foundations of its power are and how to undermine them. These are not intangible concepts, such as the potency of its national myths and global public opinion. Zionist power rests on material facts. It must maintain internal cohesion, unwavering support from US imperialism and regional divisions. Only by decisively undermining these three pillars can we truly open the road to Palestinian freedom.

Perspectives for Palestinian liberation

The worst mistake made by the Axis of Resistance is to think that it can simply outlast Israel. The immense pressure on Israeli society since 7 October and its growing international isolation have not made Israel any less dangerous. Rather like a wounded beast, the Zionist state is only becoming more violent, frantic and unpredictable as it senses its strength faltering. Palestine cannot afford to simply survive; it needs a strategy which can lead to full liberation as swiftly and efficiently as possible. For this we must look at what has worked and what hasn’t in the past 15 months.

The Israeli genocide has provoked unprecedented movements of solidarity with the Palestinian people. While these have garnered mass support and attention, they have not been translated into much political or military success. The central reason is that the pro-Palestinian movement has overwhelmingly been unable to connect with domestic working-class discontent. Rather, it is perceived as a somewhat distant cause mainly requiring moral indignation.

To give the movement real teeth, including the ability to stop weapons and goods being shipped to Israel, it must stop directing its energies towards lobbying governments or institutions fully committed to Israel. It must show the working class in every country how its own oppression at the hands of imperialism is connected to the Palestinian struggle. This will not happen through the liberal moralising or religious preaching of the movement’s current leaders. It is urgent that the international Palestinian movement reorient and ensure that it has a more proletarian, anti-imperialist orientation in the next phase of its struggle.

When it comes to tensions within Israel, they have increased considerably. However, this has not translated into any significant manifestation of solidarity with the Palestinians or anyone else in the region. Whatever the intent of 7 October, its consequence was to fuse Israeli society into a genocidal mania. There can be no question of Palestine abandoning armed struggle; impotent diplomatic negotiations will lead nowhere. But the struggle must be waged in a way which will exacerbate the fissures within Israel. Each Israeli civilian death does more to foster support for Palestinian oppression than to undermine Israel. Militarily and strategically, such attacks are counterproductive.

War is the continuation of politics by other means: a religious-nationalist strategy will employ military tactics pushing confrontation along national and religious lines. Given Israel’s overwhelming military superiority, Palestine cannot hope to win through a direct confrontation with the entire Israeli nation. Sentimental appeals to the liberal Zionist wing of the ruling class are no better. In contrast, a strategy of proletarian internationalism would orient its actions towards splitting the Israeli nation along class lines, paralysing its military apparatus and breaking it from within. Socialists in the resistance must elaborate such a strategy, put its tactics into practice and show how it is more effective.

One of the most lamentable roles in the Gaza genocide has been played by the Muslim regimes allied to the US. While they mumbled words of disapproval under pressure from their populations, they did not lift a finger to support the Palestinians, Lebanese, Houthis or Iranians. A central focus for the resistance must be to foment and organise struggle against these treacherous pawns of imperialism.

In most cases the opposition within Muslim countries is either religious or liberal pro-imperialist. It is blatantly obvious that neither of these platforms can unify the region against Israel and the US, let alone deliver democratic rights and economic development. To throw imperialism out and liberate Palestine, it is necessary to unleash popular sentiments for democratic and social change behind working-class leadership, the only force in the region which has an unalloyed interest in the full democratic rights of every nation and religion and does not benefit in any way from conciliating US imperialism.

These key lessons must be discussed and debated. Over-optimism will not help the Palestinians in the slightest. Now is the time to regroup the most determined elements of the pro-Palestinian movement and socialist left into a fighting party capable of leading Palestine to a true victory. Forward to a red and free Palestine!